How Governments Promote Monopolies: Public Procurement in India

Government officials exert tremendous power when they buy goods and services from private companies. By setting the terms and conditions under which public procurement takes place, public officials help determine which companies will thrive and which ones will fail. This is one of the important ways governments help create and sustain monopolies in the private sector. But since the bidding process to sell products or services to the government is supposed to be an open and fair competition, how does it become skewed toward businesses that already dominate markets? We examine a particular source of bias: the eligibility criteria for bidding in public procurement tenders. These criteria often allow a few large, private companies to bid on government contracts, but they exclude a large number of small and medium‐sized enterprises. We study the terms by which offers are solicited in India through tenders floated for transportation projects: roads, highways, bridges, and civil construction. We find that the eligibility criteria impose an unnecessarily heavy burden on small firms, potentially knocking them out of the competition and discouraging them from participating in other procurement processes. In this way, the process reinforces monopolies instead of breaking them up. While this study focuses on India, the results also apply to similar economies.     

Distress Anomaly and Shareholder Risk: International Evidence

Financially distressed stocks in the United States earn puzzlingly low returns giving rise to the distress risk anomaly. We provide evidence that the anomaly exists in developed countries, but not in emerging ones. Using cross‐country analyses, we explore several potential drivers of returns to distressed stocks. The distress anomaly is stronger in countries with stronger takeover legislation, lower barriers to arbitrage, and higher information transparency. In contrast, shareholder bargaining power and expected stock return skewness in a country do not affect the anomaly. These findings suggest that various aspects of shareholders’ risk play an important role in shaping distressed stocks returns.     

Robust ergodic chaos in discounted dynamic optimization models

Summary We identify a family of discounted dynamic optimization problems in which the immediate return function depends on current consumption, capital input and a taste parameter. The usual monotonicity and concavity assumptions on the return functions and the aggregative production function are verified. It is shown that the optimal transition functions are represented by the quadratic family, well-studied in the literature on chaotic dynamical systems. Hence, Jakobson's theorem can be used to throw light on the issues of robustness of ergodic chaos and sensitive dependence on initial conditions.     

Real and Financial Sector Interaction Under Liberalization in an Open Developing Economy

A short‐run model incorporates instantaneous portfolio equilibrium with macroeconomic flows to clarify the structure of real–financial sector interactions. If equity and foreign exchange markets are introduced in structuralist theories of asset markets in developing countries, the key result that a fall in money supply raises the rate of inflation now holds only under special conditions on partial derivatives. But there is a tendency for interest rates to rise and for fluctuations in asset prices. Fuller integration of asset markets moderates these fluctuations. Outcomes are stable in spite of the generalized complementarity distinguishing equity markets from loan markets. Expectations play a major role. Implications for policy are to link domestic interest rates to foreign, remove artificial barriers to market integration, and stimulate demand as well as supply.     

Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending

Japan's interest rates have been compressed toward zero because of pressure coming through the foreign exchanges. Twenty years of current‐account surpluses have led to a huge buildup of claims – mainly dollars – on foreigners. Because of ongoing fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate, Japanese financial institutions will only willingly hold these dollar claims if the nominal yield on them is substantially higher than on yen assets. In the 1990s to 2002 as US interest rates have come down, portfolio equilibrium has been sustained only when nominal interest rates on yen assets have been forced toward zero. One consequence is the now infamous liquidity trap for Japanese monetary policy. A second consequence is the erosion of the normal profit margins of Japan's commercial banks, leading to a slump in new bank credit and an inability to grow out of the overhang of old bad loans.     

Equity market liberalization and corporate governance

Equity market liberalizations open up domestic stock markets to foreign investors. A puzzle in the literature is why developing countries exhibit relatively small financial impacts associated with liberalizations. We use cross-firm variation in corporate governance at the time of the official liberalization of the equity market in Korea to test whether governance can explain the extent to which firms benefit when countries liberalize. The results show that better-governed firms experience significantly greater stock price increases upon equity market liberalization. Following the liberalization in Korea, foreign ownership in firms with strong corporate governance was significantly higher than that in firms with weak governance. Better-governed firms also exhibit higher rates of physical capital accumulation after liberalization.     

Why Development Now Matters for the G-20

Journal of Quantitative Economics -     

Use of neurometrics to choose optimal advertisement method for omnichannel business

ABSTRACT

The omnichannel business has deeply affected retail practices and promotional strategies. This paper presents an empirical evaluation of omnichannel advertisement channels using neurometric response of the viewers. High precision camera and Galvanic Skin Response sensors were used to record neurometric information of respondents. The response of forty volunteers against a set of cosmetic advertisements was recorded to train a computer for predicting expected neurometric response for an advertisement channel. The recorded neurometric data was further analyzed to develop a set of business rules to measure the effectiveness of any advertisement channel. Later, comparative analysis of various advertisement channels was done.     

Evaluating India’s exchange rate regime under global shocks

The paper assesses the performance of India’s managed float with respect to maintaining a real competitive exchange rate, its impact on trade, on stability of currency and financial markets, and on inflation. It also derives the current range that balances these three effects.